It is imperative to engage in a candid discussion on Ke’Bryan Hayes, as the opportunity to revitalize his career and tenure in a Bucco uniform may be dwindling. During the abbreviated 2020 season, Hayes appeared to be the most promising talent since Andrew McCutchen’s peak, surpassing the expectations around him upon his promotion to the major leagues.
In a limited sample of 24 games, Hayes achieved a batting average of .376 and an OPS of 1.124, along with 5 home runs. He appeared to be the one beacon of hope capable of guiding the Pirates out of a dismal reconstruction phase. However, since then, despite his continual excellence in fielding at third base, his offensive output has been markedly unsatisfactory.
His cumulative offensive statistics for 2023 were commendable, complemented by his deserved first Gold Glove Award; nonetheless, the most of his offensive output occurred in the latter half of the season. Recalling the initial excitement surrounding Hayes upon his debut and his performance—though brief, it was remarkably inspiring—hitting .271 with 15 home runs and a .762 OPS is arguably the minimum expected from one of the purported cornerstones of the franchise at a position that typically needs to generate offense for teams to succeed. Regardless of whether one attributes his insufficient offensive performance to a deficiency in elite hitting skills or to infrequent health, the outcomes remain unchanged.
Given the team’s need on him for competitiveness, this situation cannot persist. Hayes has suffered from a persistent back ailment during the peak years of his career, since he has never surpassed 140 games played in a season. Last week, he stated he felt fine and that his summer training had allowed him to manage his back issue, but he’ll never feel 100%.
He may get through this season injury-free and relatively productive. But the Pirates have him extended for four more years beyond 2025. No one has a time machine, but it’s hard to imagine Hayes being a consistent backbone for this squad as he ages. This persistent back issue is hard enough as it is in his 20s; it won’t get any easier the more wear and tear occurs across these extended seasons, no matter the training he puts into maintaining his ailment.
Hayes has always had one thing going for him for better or worse: his primary mentor and father, former big leaguer Charlie Hayes. Charlie has always had his son’s back. When Hayes first signed that 8-year, $70 million contract, we all thought how lucky the Pirates were that Hayes would take what seemed like such a bargain for what he would eventually be worth to be the cornerstone of the club that chose him in the first round in 2015. But with Hayes’ body already exhibiting indications of degeneration at the time and his ongoing IL stints ever since, accepting the money and running with it was clearly the prudent move for him and his family because no one would be offering him any long-term contract today, or probably ever again.
It appears improbable that Hayes signed the contract primarily because he wanted to stay in Pittsburgh long-term. For a while, it feels like Hayes hasn’t been pleased here, and his lack of hustle and focus at times (I may be harsh, but the sunflower seed incident is fixed directly in my brain) is not what you would anticipate. The Pirates should observe Hayes attentively and evaluate what to do with him long-term. His glove will always be highly valuable, but with how this offense has gone for multiple years, many would rather watch peak Pedro Alvarez throwing the ball into the third row of the first base line if it meant more power and productivity.
If Ke’Bryan Hayes can produce similar to what he did in 2023, selling high next offseason or at the Trade Deadline (if the season is not going well) would not be ridiculous. The Pirates should at least explore the market because they would benefit from obtaining players with higher-hit tools at all levels of the organization. Many high-payroll teams would roll out the red carpet to bring in a superb glove with a chance to produce ordinary to above-average offensive numbers. But again, it’s hard to imagine Hayes being consistently available in the future. And the Pirates cannot afford a keystone of the lineup, a guy they have invested a lot in for their standards, to be average at best at the plate and continuously on and off the IL, no matter how terrific his defense is.
